The Core Warning
Asher, who has advised on multiple Gambling Commission applications, argued that mandatory affordability checks could push more gambling customers toward illegal bookmakers who operate outside regulatory oversight. The migration to unlicensed operators would, in turn, create significant vulnerabilities for money laundering activities to flourish unchecked.
The lawyer’s concerns echo similar warnings from financial crime experts who suggest affordability measures are “supercharging the threat of black market bookmakers being used for money laundering”.
Proposed Affordability Check Framework
The UK Gambling Commission launched a pilot program in August 2024 to assess affordability for high-spending gamblers, with the stated goal of preventing financial harm to vulnerable players. Under the current proposals:
| Check Tier | Trigger Threshold | Assessment Type |
|---|---|---|
| Basic | £150 net deposit within 30 days | Financial vulnerability check |
| Standard | £1,000 within 24 hours or £2,000 over 90 days | Financial risk assessment |
| Enhanced | £5,000 monthly or £25,000 yearly (interim code) | Detailed financial verification |
The enhanced tier would require more detailed checks of customers’ finances, potentially including bank statements and source-of-funds documentation.
Industry Concerns About Black Market Migration
The Betting and Gaming Council estimates that the affordability check policy risks pushing tens of thousands of gamblers to the black market, which could result in approximately £200 million in annual Treasury tax revenue losses.
Industry backlash has highlighted pilot failures, including inconsistent credit reference agency data and approximately 65% of bettors refusing to share financial documents, significantly increasing the risk of migration to unlicensed operators.
The concern is straightforward: excessive regulatory friction pushes players toward unregulated alternatives where consumer protections are weaker and anti-money laundering controls are virtually non-existent.
Regulatory Background and Context
The proposed financial risk assessments stem from the government’s 2023 Gambling Act Review White Paper, which outlined dozens of reforms aimed at improving player safety across the UK gambling sector.
However, the Gambling Commission has admitted that the pilot of frictionless affordability checks continues to throw up inconsistent results from credit reference agencies (CRAs), with different agencies producing different findings for the same individual.
The commission has reiterated that reducing customer friction remains a priority and that work on refining the system is ongoing, though success will depend less on intent and more on execution.
Money Laundering Vulnerabilities in Gambling
The gambling sector faces inherent money laundering risks that affordability checks could inadvertently exacerbate. Key vulnerabilities include:
- Cash prevalence: The main overarching money laundering risk in gambling is the prevalent use of cash as a common transfer mode
- Identity fraud: Criminals commonly open gaming accounts using stolen identities to launder money
- Stolen debit cards: Increasing instances of multiple stolen debit cards funding online gambling activities pose significant money laundering and terrorist financing risks
- Virtual card products: Virtual debit cards allowing multiple cards linked to one account create additional money laundering vulnerabilities
The UK Gambling Commission has raised alarm about the quality of anti-money laundering controls within the betting industry, highlighting areas where operators fall short in detecting and preventing financial risks.
Asher’s Credentials and Expertise
Jeremy Asher brings significant credentials to his warning. As a lawyer specializing in fraud, he co-founded the Financial Fraud Awareness Campaign and has advised on Gambling Commission applications, giving him insider knowledge of regulatory processes and financial crime dynamics.
In a LinkedIn post from May 1, 2026, Asher expressed deep concern about the proposals, describing them as “sleepwalking into a disaster” regarding consumer protection and financial crime prevention.
Economic Implications
Policy experts warn the affordability check approach could cost approximately £200 million annually in tax revenue if customers shift to unlicensed operators, despite the policy’s goal of protecting vulnerable gamblers.
Regulatory delays and public opposition may force policy revisions before the planned 2026 rollout, forcing regulators to balance gambling protection against market stability.
Current Regulatory Status
The Gambling Commission has stated that financial risk assessments would not be implemented as soon as May 2026, indicating regulatory delays. Meanwhile, the commission and Betting and Gaming Council have worked on an industry-led code applying during the interim period to mitigate what critics describe as “onerous, ad hoc and inconsistent” checks currently applied by operators.
Anti-money laundering checks remain triggered at lower levels, with Gambling Commission guidance requiring identification and verification when customers deposit, withdraw funds, or claim winnings amounting to €2,000 or more.
What Happens Next
The success of affordability checks will depend on maintaining balance between player protection and a competitive, regulated market. As Asher’s warning highlights, poorly implemented friction could inadvertently create larger financial crime problems while attempting to solve consumer protection issues.
The gambling sector is heading into a period of tighter oversight, with new affordability checks set to play a larger role just as broader tax and regulatory changes take effect. Industry groups remain unconvinced the balance is right, warning that the regulated market must remain attractive enough to prevent mass migration to unlicensed alternatives where money laundering risks multiply exponentially.